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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."